outside-in

Battle of the Trade Shows

A few years ago it was all about CeBIT. The global technology show where every client and every journalist wanted to be. Three days of trekking across the vast expanse of the Hanover Messe trying to link the two groups together!

Meanwhile, a small niche show in Cannes called The GSM Conference and the CES show in Las Vegas were establishing themselves on the media agenda. Both started out smaller and more niche in their appeal, GSM focusing on mobile telephone technology and CES on consumer electronics, whilst CeBIT covered a wide gamut of technologies.

However, over the past few years, as the chart below shows, both general interest (as measured by web searches) and media coverage of CES has massively overtaken CeBIT, even MWC is now attracting more media coverage than CeBIT (see 2011 chart)

Red = CeBIT / Orange = CES / Blue = MWC

So what’s happened to CeBIT? Perhaps it is more a case of what’s happened to CES and MWC. Both have undoubtedly profited from the consumerisation of IT – with more technologies now immediately targeting the general public as well as or instead of the corporate. Also the mobilisation of technology – and the increasing ubiquity and functionality of mobile devices has made MWC in particular of wider general interest than before.

In addition, there have been some key moments that have added to the fame of CES and MWC – the launch of Blu Ray technology at CES in 2004, Bill Gate’s famous ‘Blue Screen of Death demo of Windows Media Centre at the same conference in 2006 – even Apple’s decision to launch the iPhone, not at CES but at MacWorld a week later in 2008 all helped build the fame of CES.

For MWC – the move to Barcelona in 2006 and the name change to Mobile World Congress (from 3GSM) the following year, plus a series of high profile keynotes from chief execs of industry bell weathers like Cisco, Microsoft, Nokia etc helped cement the date in media and market minds.

So what does this mean for CeBIT? Well this year’s news included launches by Intel, Samsung and Asus which underlines its importance to the tech marketplace – especially serious, back office, enterprise class systems. Over the past few years these have been out of vogue, but perhaps they are poised for a return to the front pages (at least of the tech media) and CeBIT will return to its time in the sun.

We're all 'appy now!

At the Westminster eForum meeting this week and interesting dynamic was explored. High profile speakers from the likes of RIM, Microsoft, Skype and O2 were debating the impact of smartphones and tablets on the mobile industry. Apps and the explosion in their use was obviously a key topic, but for many there was also the return of the mobile internet. Although the phrase has been sullied by its initial association with poor WAP-based implementations that were neither very mobile and certainly not the Internet, it is now seen as ready to come of age.

The central theme seemed to be that apps were developed expressly to deliver internet-like (or internet-lite) experiences to people with restricted bandwidth, low processing power and relatively small screens. Many of these constraints are now being removed. Although the 4G license (LTE) auction in the UK has been delayed, it will happen, and the newest phones have quite breathtaking computing power. Tablets and emerging alternative formats, even large-screen smartphones are also increasing the viability of viewing regular web pages on the move. So will the mobile internet rise again – and if it does what will be the impact on apps?

There were three contrasting views expressed on apps in particular. O2 unsurprisingly was in the Apple camp, celebrating the download of over 10 billion apps and the choice of hundreds of thousands of apps for almost everything. RIM was more circumspect, both focusing on fewer apps of higher quality and which helped consumers with the tasks they most regularly needed to do, and thinking forward to the symbiosis of Apps on a smartphone and the mobile internet on a tablet. Microsoft was pushing its Windows Phone 7 product with its concept of ‘hubs’ – using pre-loaded apps to pull together related content from the device and the web to make it easier to use, share and interact with contacts, photos, music etc. Finally, Google had a foot in both camps – not only pushing its own Android Marketplace, but also the relevance of search as the core of the mobile internet.

This all served to illustrate that there is no common view of where things will evolve to next. The apps market looks healthy and buoyant at the moment, and is generating significant revenues (although as noted in the Forum, mainly for Apple and Google), but few seemed willing to bet that it will last. There is also no common platform for mobile. After years of consolidation and standardisation on the desktop we are now faced with a number of strong operating systems in the market (RIM, iOS, Microsoft, Android).

The internet was successful because of its open nature, anyone with a browser can view any site. Apps are flying counter to this currently, with different implementations needed for each OS and even individual devices and dedicated stores catering for each. A mobile internet would return to standards-based approaches that are easier and cheaper to manage. However, apps get branded real-estate onto people’s personal devices in a way that web pages never will.

I’m not going to weigh in with predictions when those much more intelligent and better placed than I ducked. But it does seem that we are entering a mixed economy of approaches where apps and mobile web access with work alongside and together. Much of the difference will be due to preference and to the objective of the content provider. Angry Birds works as a downloadable app, but with good network coverage, a fast processor and a decent screen, why would you use a Facebook app instead of visiting the site itself?